Protesters seen at the Lincoln Memorial calling on the United States to act amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Kenny Holston / Getty Images
- Russia has been subject to several sanctions from other countries due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine.
- However, an expert in economic warfare believes that it will hardly stop Russia.
- Gary Hufbauer has argued that economic sanctions only tend to work against smaller countries.
Western sanctions against Russia will have a significant impact on the economy, but will hardly stop the country’s attacks on Ukraine, says an expert in economic warfare.
Gary Hufbauer, a researcher at Washington’s Peterson Institute for International Economics, has studied 100 cases of sanctions that have been used over the last century, from World War I to Iraq.
“The success rate in achieving the foreign policy goal was less than a third of the cases,” the author said of “Economic sanctions reconsidered”.
“Most of the countries that were successful were smaller countries, weaker countries, not so much larger countries as in the case of Russia,” Hufbauer said in an interview.
Economic pressure worked against countries such as Panama, Peru or Sierra Leone and helped overthrow dictators in some medium-sized countries such as Brazil and South Korea.
They were also “given a contribution” to the end of the racist apartheid regime in South Africa, he said.
But Washington’s sanctions prevented Pakistan from acquiring nuclear weapons.
And while US sanctions against China in the 1950s Korean War were economically and militarily painful, “China” continued to support the North Koreans – just like the Soviet Union.
The one time Moscow withdrew from Afghanistan in the 1980s “was not so much because of the sanctions,” but because of American armament of Afghans, the loss of Russian forces and political unrest in the home, Hufbauer said.
“Sanctions hurt financially, but harming a country and its economy is not the same as changing the views of its political leaders,” Hufbauer said.
This was especially the case for leaders with strong personal power, such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Hufbauer called the “autocrat of autocrats.”
“Once you get a major country like Russia to invade another country, it’s very difficult to get the leader of the attacking country to change his mind,” he said, as it would be “a very big setback for him. personally”.
Hufbauer acknowledged that the new sanctions against Russia were of “unprecedented strength”.
The US and Western allies have tried to paralyze Russia’s banking sector and currency by cutting out selected banks from the SWIFT messaging system, isolating them from the rest of the world and banning transactions with Moscow’s central bank.
This could reduce Russia’s income by as much as 10 percent – a “very big hit” – but it was unlikely to force a ceasefire.
“There is no real precedent for that,” Hufbauer said.
It is definitely the line from the Kremlin.
Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday: “Western sanctions against Russia are harsh, but our country has the necessary potential to compensate for the damage”.
Russia faces several sanctions – but is it likely to stop the invasion of Ukraine?
Source link Russia faces several sanctions – but is it likely to stop the invasion of Ukraine?